Published on 01 November 2012, by M. Tomazy.
There are two Major political coalitions in Lebanon which are totally contradictory in their political positions.
March 14 coalition versus March 8 coalition.
The current political picture has been created due to two major events: The first even was The assassination of ex-PM Rafiq Al-Hariri on Feb. 14, 2005. thereafter, March 14 coalition is formed on the ground.
The second event was The written deal in form of Alliance between Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasralla and The leader of Free Patriot Movement (FPM), Gen. Michel Aoun on Feb. 2006 to form the nucleus of March 8 coalition later on.
March 14 coalition includes mainly (The future movement, Lebanese forces, Phalanges Party and Progressive Socialist party) for the later Party it was included before Jumblatt decided to re-position as he usually does.
March 8 Coalition includes mainly (Hezbollah, Amal movement, FPM)
In Lebanon, any what-so-called "Party" is not an "Actual Party", so it may be an inherited tribal leadership like in case of Phalanges party which is led by "Jmayyel family" except in short period when it was led by the Armenian-origin "Kareem Bakradonian" and One can notice that also in the Progressive Social party --the name is totally reverse the fact-- which is exclusively led by "Jumblat tribe".
The virtual dispute between March 14 coalition and March 8 coalition is the later considers the Resistance is the way to return the Occupied Lebanese lands and the only way to protect Lebanon from Israeli assaults since the formal Lebanese army is unable to carry the role of defense and Israel penetrates the Lebanese Air, Land and Coasts daily and looks toward the Headwaters of rivers and springs.While March 14 group viewpoint is that Lebanon can be protected by UN and international law and some of them announced publically they agree to hold "Peaceful" relations with Israel and they always accuse the other coalition by being "TAILS" for the Syrian and Iranian policy in the region, Furthermore, March 14 group always include the term "Lebanon independence" within their speech.
The Actual dispute between March 14 group and March 8 group is that the former one (March 14) is just a tool in the U.S. Administration to achieve its projects in the M.E. and Wikileaks released minutes of meetings between the American Ambassador in Lebanon and figures belong to March 14 coalition shows the American orders to them in order to distort the Lebanese resistance and block any action against Israeli continuous assaults toward Lebanon. The other side is supported by Iran and the Syrian regime who share March 8 coalition with Hostility toward Israel.
With the beginning of the Syrian uprising, --which transformed into bloody conflict later on-- March 14 coalition immediately engaged the Syrian conflict by Arming the Syrian rebels with weapons and men, While March 8 group was cautious to interfere in the Syrian conflict, although they announced their "Moral support" to the Syrian regime without Military support but they always emphasized -- particularly Hezbollah-- that they will defend "Syria" in case of any foreign direct military attack would be taken on Syria.
March 14 coalition coordinated with Saudi and Qatari royal families to send Money, Weapons and Fighters to back up the Syrian rebels and According British Journals (The independent) and (The Guardian), One of March 14 figures Called Oqab Saqer is sent to Turkey in order to organize, pay salaries --Literally-- for the Syrian rebels from Turkey.
Furthermore, Lebanese Army seized Libyan ship (named Lutf-Allah) containing heavy weapons in its way to Syria through Tripoli (Northern Lebanon).
There is no doubt that Wessam al-Hassan the ex-head of Information branch forces (similar to Internal Security intelligence force) was engaged in the Syrian civil war by Supporting the rebels in coordination with the Saudi intelligence service and its not a coincidence when the Saudi King appointed Prince Bandar Bin Sultan on the head of saudi intelligence service who has a very well knowledge on the Lebanese political formula since 1980s. The mentioned Prince was being accused of the Assassination attempt of the deceased Grand Shiite cleric (Mohammad Hussein Fadlullah) after bombing the Marines basement in Beirut during 1980s.
Wessam al-Hassan was also accused for fabrication the witnesses' testimony in the (Special Tribunal for Lebanon) tasked to investigate the Assassination of Rafiq al-Hariri.
For all that, there is no "criminal" evidence proves that the Syrian regime is responsible for Wessam al-Hassan assassination, but it would be the normal result for the Syrian regime to get rid of him after Supprting the Anti-Assad rebels with all possible "fighting" facilities.
Since Sa'ad al-Hariri lacks Charisma, and Waleed Jumblatt has changed his Political position --as he usually does--, In addition, The Syrian regime did not collapse as they expected, All that allow Samir Geagea --the leader of racist Christian Lebanese Forces party-- to lead March 14 looking forward to win the next Presidential chair in Lebanon -- in the Lebanese Constitution the President must be Maronite Christian-- and to cut the road to Michel Aoun who also looks forward to the Presidential Chair.
The Luck disappointed March 14 coalition another time, because Waleed Jumblat left the group and Fares Soaid (March 14 General Secretariat Coordinator) Launched a rhetorical offensive against his partners in March 14 alliance, This is to show that they are ruled by their "Personal" interest and the last thing they care about is Lebanon as a homeland and independency of Lebanon.
I think the West is not interested to start any Conflict in Lebanon since they concentrate all efforts toward Syria and Iran also the EU already suffers from economic crisis.